With a strong performance in 2019 nearly in the rear view window, a pair of analysts predict even more in 2020. Here’s why they believe gold will surge.
In his latest piece, Forbes contributor Simon Constable looked at some of the reasons why analysts are calling for gold’s price to jump to $1,700 as early as March. A recent report by Wolfe Research examined the up-and-down price patterns of various financial assets, noting that gold’s pattern is signaling a 15% move up over the next couple of months based on previous performance.
John Roque and Rob Ginsburg, the report’s authors, have analyzed the gold market’s technical chart and found a persistent pattern dating back to 2015. Since then, there have been seven instances where gold has taken a sideways turn on the chart for a prolonged period of time after a price spike. Roque and Ginsburg explained that these instances of sideways price movement, such as the one seen over the last couple of months, serve to form a new and considerably higher base for the metal. As historical precedent shows, each of these sideways turns is followed by a conspicuous price gain averaging at 15% over the next 75 days with a median gain of 14% over the next 83 days.
Although Constable notes that the average percentage means that the amount gained over the next three months could vary, the analysts are certain that we are seeing an eighth such pattern forming and are forecasting gold prices to jump to $1,679 by February. As the pair explains, the pattern on the chart started forming when gold climbed to $1,546 in September and then fell to $1,455 in November, which began creating a base that will lead to the predicted breakout.
However, the analysts see far more in store for gold than just a 15% percent jump over the next three months. The Wolfe report echoes the opinion of various analysts who are stating that gold is currently enjoying an unprecedented amount of momentum. While the report mostly focuses on technical movement, analysts have repeatedly said that gold is being supported by an immense amount of tailwinds, including a deteriorating global economy, a slew of geopolitical risks and the looming threat of a supply glut in the not-too-distant future.
Regardless of whether gold meets the $1,679 mark by February or trends a bit lower, Roque and Ginsburg have few doubts that the current cycle of price gains stands on much stronger footing than previous ones. Therefore, no matter how much gold gains in the short-term, the pair expects the cycle to culminate in gold surpassing its all-time high of $1,900, last seen during the financial crisis of 2011.